Hot Zone Wild

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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

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“Interviews [ … ] with representatives of state monopoly operators across European jurisdictions consistently suggested that advertising restrictions did not lead to consumer migration towards illegal operators,” the report said. 

This report arrived amid the UK government’s 2023 white paper on gambling reform, which introduced a statutory levy for funding research and treatment. 

A cross-party of MPs similarly branded gambling advertisement as a “public health issue” in a recent parliamentary debate. The comment came after the publication of the All-Party Parliamentary Group’s May report.

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They have also been advised to thoroughly review their Know Your Customer, fraud detection protocols and contractual terms to reflect the guide’s recommendations. 

They must also evaluate their current technical safeguards to ensure alignment with regulator expectations and certification standards.

Safeguarding has reappeared as a focal point for the regulator. In July of this year, ANJ imposed a €500,000 ($572,797) fine on an unnamed online betting operator, referred to as Company X, for not adequately identifying and supporting customers exhibiting signs of problematic gambling.