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Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

The existence of a new competitor does not automatically mean sportsbook revenue will collapse. But valuations do not require proof of collapse to fall. A loss of confidence in future growth can be enough.

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Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.

Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.

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One Foundation’s operating licence was suspended for six days after the DIA identified accounting failures relating to gambling proceeds, as well as a failure to surrender a licence for one of its pokies venues when required by law.

The DIA also issued new financial guidance for class 4 operators, with the aim of providing greater clarity on their accounting requirements and an explanation of their obligations.

The department said the guidance had been designed to “improve consistency across the sector and help prevent similar issues from occurring in future”.