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How to play Atlantis
The record-breaking numbers make clear that Americans haven’t pulled back on travel spending, even amid a challenging economic backdrop. But that demand hasn’t necessarily translated to Las Vegas in 2026, as World Cup host cities absorbed a larger share of domestic trips.
Las Vegas, however, is ultra-resilient, and its recovery remains a question of when, not if.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
How to play Atlantis
“One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street–to use the term in its figurative sense–would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed–not by everyone but always by someone,” Buffett warned.
Buffett was not always entirely anti-gambling. Before commercial sports betting expanded across the United States, he regularly offered $1 million annually to any Berkshire Hathaway employee who submitted a perfect NCAA March Madness men’s basketball bracket.
To date, no individual has ever recorded a verified perfect NCAA tournament bracket.
